Ebola spreads exponentially. From a single case, it only has to double less than 33 times to exceed the total population of Earth. So the worst case scenario is that everyone on the planet who does not have natural immunity or cannot isolate themselves would catch it.
Between 50-90% of those who catch Ebola die. 70.8% is believed to be the most accurate current figure based on known clinical data. But that's for people who received medical treatment where the cases were followed from start to finish. In a worst case scenario it would eventually reach a point where most cases could not obtain medical care and the death rate would likely worsen.
The charts are based on reported cases and deaths from WHO. This outbreak has already doubled about 13 times in about 10 months. It only has to double at most 20 more times to have doubled 33 times. If it continues doubling at the current pace (doubling again 13 times every 10 months), that will take a little more than 15 months, which would be before the end of January 2016.
Long before then, economies and social systems would collapse in pretty much total chaos. Food and other necessities would be in short supply. A worst case scenario with Ebola would likely be the end of this civilization as we know it.
I'm really hoping we can avoid such a worst case scenario, though I am not seeing much reason to expect that. To avoid this, you have to bring the growth down to where there is an average of less than 1 new case from current cases (R0 less than 1). Then it stops doubling and slowly dies out.
I only know of 3 ways to do that, but perhaps there are more:
1. Quarantine/isolation
2. A treatment or vaccine that can be produced in sufficient quantity
3. Luck or divine intervention
The longer the epidemic grows, the more difficult #1 becomes because there are too many people infected, and over a wider area. At least one of the top Ebola experts in the world believes #2 is unlikely to be achievable in time and that belief in miracle technology being invented and produced in time makes it less likely enough will be done for #1 to be achieved in time. As for #3, some believe the Spanish Flu epidemic only ended because that virus mutated enough to no longer be so deadly to humans.
Between 50-90% of those who catch Ebola die. 70.8% is believed to be the most accurate current figure based on known clinical data. But that's for people who received medical treatment where the cases were followed from start to finish. In a worst case scenario it would eventually reach a point where most cases could not obtain medical care and the death rate would likely worsen.
The charts are based on reported cases and deaths from WHO. This outbreak has already doubled about 13 times in about 10 months. It only has to double at most 20 more times to have doubled 33 times. If it continues doubling at the current pace (doubling again 13 times every 10 months), that will take a little more than 15 months, which would be before the end of January 2016.
Long before then, economies and social systems would collapse in pretty much total chaos. Food and other necessities would be in short supply. A worst case scenario with Ebola would likely be the end of this civilization as we know it.
I'm really hoping we can avoid such a worst case scenario, though I am not seeing much reason to expect that. To avoid this, you have to bring the growth down to where there is an average of less than 1 new case from current cases (R0 less than 1). Then it stops doubling and slowly dies out.
I only know of 3 ways to do that, but perhaps there are more:
1. Quarantine/isolation
2. A treatment or vaccine that can be produced in sufficient quantity
3. Luck or divine intervention
The longer the epidemic grows, the more difficult #1 becomes because there are too many people infected, and over a wider area. At least one of the top Ebola experts in the world believes #2 is unlikely to be achievable in time and that belief in miracle technology being invented and produced in time makes it less likely enough will be done for #1 to be achieved in time. As for #3, some believe the Spanish Flu epidemic only ended because that virus mutated enough to no longer be so deadly to humans.
