Ebola.

[kRon1k]

Ebola spreads exponentially. From a single case, it only has to double less than 33 times to exceed the total population of Earth. So the worst case scenario is that everyone on the planet who does not have natural immunity or cannot isolate themselves would catch it.

Between 50-90% of those who catch Ebola die. 70.8% is believed to be the most accurate current figure based on known clinical data. But that's for people who received medical treatment where the cases were followed from start to finish. In a worst case scenario it would eventually reach a point where most cases could not obtain medical care and the death rate would likely worsen.

The charts are based on reported cases and deaths from WHO. This outbreak has already doubled about 13 times in about 10 months. It only has to double at most 20 more times to have doubled 33 times. If it continues doubling at the current pace (doubling again 13 times every 10 months), that will take a little more than 15 months, which would be before the end of January 2016.

Long before then, economies and social systems would collapse in pretty much total chaos. Food and other necessities would be in short supply. A worst case scenario with Ebola would likely be the end of this civilization as we know it.

I'm really hoping we can avoid such a worst case scenario, though I am not seeing much reason to expect that. To avoid this, you have to bring the growth down to where there is an average of less than 1 new case from current cases (R0 less than 1). Then it stops doubling and slowly dies out.

I only know of 3 ways to do that, but perhaps there are more:

1. Quarantine/isolation

2. A treatment or vaccine that can be produced in sufficient quantity

3. Luck or divine intervention

The longer the epidemic grows, the more difficult #1 becomes because there are too many people infected, and over a wider area. At least one of the top Ebola experts in the world believes #2 is unlikely to be achievable in time and that belief in miracle technology being invented and produced in time makes it less likely enough will be done for #1 to be achieved in time. As for #3, some believe the Spanish Flu epidemic only ended because that virus mutated enough to no longer be so deadly to humans.

 

[miniCyb3r]

If people would only wash their hands...

 

[DamageINC]

I wonder if the people where these diseases originate have access to soap and clean running water.

 

[mmnz]

ebola only has an r nought of 1-2 so it's really not that big a deal

 

[WaLLy]

If people would only wash their hands...

Pisses me off so bad at work. Peeps pee and don't have the decency to wash their hands. I've gotten a habit to grab the door handle with the paper towels I dry my hands with after I wash my hands.

Some people are gross!

 

[Garycheese]

So is this going to be the end of the world and life as we no it or is it just like the plague and will die out in a year or 2.
The only real answer I have about this is

 

[theGenius]

dont worry to much about ebola. ebola spread so fast in libiria because of the lack of infrastructer, open sewers, no clean water, lack of medicin, medical personal etc. the lack of the most basic infrastructer causes this problem. so i wouldnt worry that this becomes the next plague. besides, ebola cant even spread to for example sweden, because there is not enough humidity to support the virus. and just like many said, basic hygene like washing hands go a long way.

 

[Kreubs]

http://www.google.com/patents/US20120251502

 

[Garycheese]

Holy shit kreubs

 

[PrestoN]

Pisses me off so bad at work. Peeps pee and don't have the decency to wash their hands. I've gotten a habit to grab the door handle with the paper towels I dry my hands with after I wash my hands.

Some people are gross!

I thought I was the only one

 

[Storky]

Pisses me off so bad at work. Peeps pee and don't have the decency to wash their hands. I've gotten a habit to grab the door handle with the paper towels I dry my hands with after I wash my hands.

Some people are gross!

ya when i see that happen at the gas station it makes me sick. public toilets must be crawling with shit[DOUBLEPOST=1413367888][/DOUBLEPOST]

dont worry to much about ebola. ebola spread so fast in libiria because of the lack of infrastructer, open sewers, no clean water, lack of medicin, medical personal etc. the lack of the most basic infrastructer causes this problem. so i wouldnt worry that this becomes the next plague. besides, ebola cant even spread to for example sweden, because there is not enough humidity to support the virus. and just like many said, basic hygene like washing hands go a long way.

it will spread in england like wildfire then "humidity"

 

[jasmine]

ya when i see that happen at the gas station it makes me sick. public toilets must be crawling with shit[DOUBLEPOST=1413367888][/DOUBLEPOST]
it will spread in england like wildfire then "humidity"

And yu are not in africa!

 

[Storky]

And yu are not in africa!

nope i am not. i was saying if it spreads to england

 

[jasmine]

I dont mean ebola it's hygen problem

 

[Storky]

ya thats true

 

[jasmine]

I dont read kreubs links, i have no translate but i have more trust on kreubs tthan kronik post

 

[Nikon]

 

[miniCyb3r]

Why'd my comment a dislike?[DOUBLEPOST=1413385424][/DOUBLEPOST]

 

[jasmine]

If people would only wash their hands...

if only they had water for drinking and food ...

 

[PR3C1Z10N]

I don't think that the worse case scenario (everyone dies) would happen, seeing that there are a few people ( I hope) in the world with some common sense. There are bunkers and even small compound towns set up for those who can afford them. Plus, seclusion from the infected populace would obviously help, unless the virus became airborne.

P.S. Has anyone else wondered what would happen to astronauts if mankind on earth collapsed? Hehe, possibly a movie opportunity, no?